HPV Immunization: Will the New Normal Ever Show Up?
A new normal is simply a temporary condition to which an economic system, society, etc., settles after a crisis. For instance, the new normal after Hurricane Katrina might be a city in which construction is slow, making it difficult for people to buy new homes. That would cause a sharp decline in the housing market. That would cause a slowdown in the economy.
It is important for people to understand what is meant by “new normal.” It means something different to everyone. New normal may refer to a different disaster or epidemic. So, for the United States, a new normal might be the addition of a new flu strain to the current pandemic strain, or the first case of H3N2 in more than two years. In Europe, a new normal might be the release of swine flu, which the previous strain had almost wiped out.
New normal may also refer to something that has happened before, like the first documented case of AIDS. Then there is the new normal associated with the first treatment drug used to cure HIV: the vedolipid (Covid) virus infection, and the ongoing treatment of people infected with HIV, AIDS, and hepatitis. Those diseases, along with another rarer viral illness that is spread through unsafe sex, make up the new normal associated with pandemic influenza.
What is called a new normal? We don’t know; we’ll only guess. No one knows what will happen to any of these pathogens once they become established in their new environment. No one knows what will happen to any of the new strains once they are released into the environment. Some people predict that they will be dormant for a few years, others believe they will be wiped out. No one knows.
In any event, the new normal for the health system and the pandemic strain are both worrying. We are faced with a new threat, but not one that requires an entirely new strategy. The problem is that we can’t count on the usual containment procedures to contain a new threat, because that strategy doesn’t work for all viruses. And we cannot rely on the familiar social distancing procedures, because those don’t work for all diseases.
If we think in terms of pandemic preparation, the first step is to try to determine the likelihood that a new normal will emerge. In this case, we’re talking about the return of a novel H7N3 strain, which had been dormant for the past five years. (The incubation period for this strain was much longer than the duration for the common cold.) The second step is to take steps to contain this virus once it arrives in larger numbers.
So what kinds of steps should we take? First, we need to make sure that the new normal isn’t hiding in somewhere else. Some scientists are trying to get the new virus into the general population. But there’s no guarantee that it will become a problem once it becomes established. If it were to enter the general population, it might trigger an epidemic, but that’s not what we want.
To prevent an outbreak before it occurs, the best course of action is to implement a vaccination program. If the new normal turns up, we can’t afford not to have a vaccine ready to handle it. Ideally, we want to replace every existing strain with a new strain vaccine; that way, if someone has the flu, they won’t have to go through the ordeal of getting a vaccine. That’s why it makes sense to wait until the new normal comes along before introducing any kind of preventative measure.
